We're getting in late again tonight and after a little fiddling around with the models here tonight, I'm gonna leave a very short, abridged version of the past couple of days...
Thursday, we chased a high risk day in Nebraska... Had several supercells around us and even had a tornado form about 3/4 of a mile to our north southwest of Kearney. Pretty incredible!
Stayed the night in St. Joseph, MO - then chased southeastern Kansas on Friday. That didn't end up all that well, with scattered weak showers developing along the trailing front during the early-evening. No big storms developed until near sundown when the capping inversion finally broke down.
I'll write more tomorrow night or maybe Sunday, when I return home and have more time.
I'm too tired to write much...
More later...
Had a fairly complex forecast this morning and really had several major decisions to make. First, if we wanted to buy into the risk further to our southwest in western Kansas or to take the more synoptically driven area of Minnesota into Wisconsin. Second, what computer model we wanted to take faith in (they were all really telling us three or four different things), and third, logistics, in general.
We had decided to drop my car, so that we could continue with only one vehicle. I didn't have a problem with it, so we needed to decide on our destination before finding out where to leave the car. If we were to go east-northeast, I was going to leave the car in Omaha with some friends of John's. If we were to go west, we were going to leave it in Salina or possibly Hays or Russell, KS.
The west option became the general consensus, and we targeted a Hays-Dodge City-Pratt area and while we got a little bit of a late start, we were still able to observe the blocky wall cloud when the Scott City, KS storm moved northeast into Rush County. We moved to near Bison, KS and observed this cell become outflow-dominate, much as the demise of nearly all the storms today. This did produce a brief gustnado to our south-southwest (about a quarter mile or so) for about 2-3 minutes and was able to get some photos and video of that. All kinds of chaser convergence along Hwy-4, and several of these falsely reported this thing as a tornado, when it obviously wasn't. I swear, some of these folks need to take their Skywarn training again. The YouTube video linked above was from someone actually sitting across the highway from us.
Anyhow, after this, we played around with other convection around southwestern KS, as an OFB from our convection pushed southward towards DDC. Air in this area wasn't worked-over quite yet, so we thought that this may have had the opportunity to fire off some decent Supercells yet. While other storms did develop, they never got their act together and after sitting near Great Bend for about a half-hour, we bagged the evening to retreat to our hotel in Russell. Our room was given away, unfortunately, and much to the displeasure of all of us, we had to relocate to another Super-8 in Hays. It isn't quite so bad, still, as logistics will still be quite simple from here tomorrow. So as far as the models stay consistent with what their progs were indicating earlier today.
A rather aggressive shortwave looks to eject out of Colorado tomorrow, affecting parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. So, we likely won't need to drive far. Dryline action could also be an option, and if worse comes to worse, upslope off the Colorado high country may also be a play for us.
We'll see things pan out tonight and tomorrow morning on the models and if any residual boundaries from tonight's convection will affect the environment around us.
I'll have photos and video up and available upon my return to GFK, but in the meantime, stay tuned... Six, possibly seven more days of chasing are left on this guy's vacation!
As you can see, yesterday saw one of the largest severe weather outbreaks we have seen in some time. Over 50 reported tornadoes traversed through the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley yesterday and into last evening. And while this number will likely dwindle some as analysis may indicate redundant tornado tracks, I am sure it will still rank very high as one of the largest outbreaks ever for this early in the year. It, unfortunately, will rank as one of the deadliest 24-hour outbreaks this country has experienced in history. With over 50 fatalities confirmed thus far (26 alone, in Tennessee), it now exceeds the outbreak in Oklahoma of May 3rd, 1999.
The time of year and the late hour that many of these tornadoes hit are both contributing factors to the number of fatalities. But, also because these tornadoes hit largely populated areas. Tornadoes affected many large cities, including areas around Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee, as well as Fairview, Arkansas. Jackson, TN also was hit particularly hard, especially around Union University on the northwest side of the city. It is amazing no lives were lost here, as there were numerous students in dormitories at the time.
For more news coverage on the outbreak and updates on the situation at Union University, follow the links below:
http://www.wmctv.com/
http://www.jacksonsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
Also, Red Cross Chapters across West-Tennessee can be found here:
http://www.redcross.org/where/chapts.asp#TN
My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those that have been affected by this terrible outbreak.
This certainly ranks right up there with the most counties I've ever seen included in one severe weather warning. It gives an all new definition to the term "blanket warning!" This is just crazy...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBUS...
BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKFORT...
WESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KOKOMO...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ANDERSON...
MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF INDIANAPOLIS...
MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SHELBYVILLE...
TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...
EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SEYMOUR...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEDFORD...
MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BLOOMINGTON...
JENNINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 745 PM EST
* AT 653 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF FLORA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MITCHELL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOGANSPORT TO 23 MILES EAST OF PETERSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 80 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WHITESTOWN BY 705 PM EST...
ZIONSVILLE BY 710 PM EST...
WINDFALL BY 715 PM EST...
WHITELAND BY 720 PM EST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 156.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 52.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 48 AND 121.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND 135.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 80 MPH REPORTED. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
That's 25 counties whole or partially included in this warning! Granted, we're dealing with an intense squall line here. Also of particular note is the forward progression! Moving east at 80 mph!?! The line itself, isn't moving eastward quite that fast. I'm assuming the NWS caught the 80mph out of some SCIT information for an embedded cell in the echo wave pattern. Either way, seems like folks in Illinois and those back home in Indiana are dealing with some damaging winds this evening.
Soon enough, they'll find themselves at 10° or 20° F with snow falling... and winds at 30 mph! Pretty incredible system...
Hopefully...!
We received our first SVR of the season this evening:
Unfortunately things moved through fairly quickly and while it was dark. No structure or anything would have been visible, even if I had made any attempt at taking a gander. I was at a friend's place visiting, when the warning came over the wire and didn't even know anything about it until after-the-fact. Interestingly, the city of Grand Forks decided to activate their sirens for the high winds associated with the storms. According to an SVS at 10:50pm, a gust of 57mph was recorded at the NWS office here in town. No lightning to speak of, so am still awaiting that proverbial "first clap" of thunder for the year...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1016 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GRAND FORKS...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
* AT 1011 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EMERADO TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
CARPENTERS CORNER...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABOUT...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEKINOCK AT 1020 PM CDT...
TABOR AND ANGUS AT 1030 PM CDT...
MANVEL AT 1040 PM CDT...
REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO
PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
Maybe this will be a preview of what is to come this convective season up here in the Northern Plains! We will see...