5/28: Chase summary

Didn't end up seeing much this afternoon and evening, but here's a short summary of my brief Memorial Day chase:

Was on the road around 4:30 PM, and arrived at my initial target of Larimore around 5:25... Sat at this location for about a half-hour watching things. Large updraft to my north blew up, so I took off after it, but wasn't gaining any ground. It raced off to my northeast and became the Pembina County (ND) / Kittson County (MN) beast... Bases were fairly elevated on the CU field above me and nothing was happening to my west, but did finally get a visual on building towers to my west-northwest a little after 6:00 PM as I continue northward on Highway 18. Gave my buddy, Jared Guyer, a call and he stated that a location around Pisek would be good, so continued north on Highway 18 and sat at a location about 1 mile east of the 18 / CR-15 junction. An updraft had developed into a decent cell to my west-southwest and to get into better position and after another short consultation with Guyer, decided to head towards Park River. The storm dissipated and I let it pretty much rain itself out as it passed over my location 2 miles north of Park River around 7:10 PM. Afterward, I continued north on CR-12 to CR-9 East, then proceeded back to 18. Here, I turned south in attempt to stay east of the frontal boundary... Stopped at the junction of 18 and CR-19 to again monitor the boundary to my west. A few towers attempted to go up, but were really struggling to stay together. Bases were still fairly elevated at this point, so I pretty much called it a night and began the trek back towards Grand Forks. A few scattered showers had developed in eastern Nelson and western Grand Forks counties by the time I had made it back to Highway 2, but with my daylight diminishing fast, I followed my initial plans to head back home.

All in all, not bad of a chase, since I did see a couple storms. The cell to my north was pretty much the storm of the day and I had to ditch it since it took off so fast to the northeast. I'm not sure why the thing took off like it did, with the remaining convection this evening remaining right along the boundary and not budging their way eastward very fast at all... Boundary layer conditions today were fairly critical and I had noticed just before leaving work that dewpoints in both Fargo and here in Grand Forks had actually dropped 2-4 degrees between 3:00 and 4:00 pm. And with the clearer skies over the valley and the extensive CU-field to the west, it was pretty clear that the surface low was wrapping in dryer air from the southwest. So, I'm sure that had some sort of effect on our BL conditions today. I think on top of that, our capping inversion held up a little bit stronger than what the models had been indicating earlier in the day. I guess if I had to have done anything different, I would have drove straight north out of town on departure. I dismissed the greater effective shear to the north since very little instability was up there. The area where the Pembina storm initiated in was under cloud-cover almost all day... Either it destabilized pretty quickly once those clouds started decreasing, or some other sort of trigger came along and sparked those updrafts up there. Either way, it was much easier for the updrafts to get rooted in the BL in that area...

One of these days, I'll make one of these chases worth the time spent!
A more complete log and a few select photos will be posted tomorrow, when I get more time...

A big thanks goes out to Jared Guyer and Bryan McQuade for providing some nowcasting support for me today... It was a big help!

Another chase day?

It's looking like today may turn into another chase opportunity for us here in the Northern Plains. We're sitting under a fairly extensive cloud deck this morning over much of eastern North Dakota, however we should see some clearing this afternoon and with us getting into the warm sector of the shortwave pushing east-northeast through the region today, we should get into some decent instability. The 06z NAM and GEM are a bit quicker and start convecting around 21z over eastern areas of North Dakota and then progressively initiate thunderstorms along the inverted trough axis and cold front this evening. The NAM still seems a bit high on it's moisture return this afternoon, with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid 60's across the area by this afternoon. I'm a little concerned with that, given that our dewpoints this morning are only in the lower 40's across the northern valley. They are increasing over the southern portions of the valley down by Fargo (they've gone from 38° to 52° in the last 2 hours) and especially near Wahpeton (from 53° to 61° over the same period) where they're getting sun already.

The quicker we lose these clouds, the better chance for our daytime heating and moisture return. LI's range from -2 to -8 across the region and with EHI's at 3+, it seems that we have a decent balance of instability and shear. Could very well have some supercells out there this afternoon. Looks like east-central parts will be prime by later this afternoon and if I do head out, I'm thinking of heading in that direction.

More later...

chase log completed!

Hi folks,

The chase log and photos from yesterday's chase expedition are now uploaded and ready for your viewing pleasure. I apologize for the poor quality of the photos, but stupid me forgot to check that the battery was in the XT before leaving town. I didn't notice until I was well past the Grand Forks Air-Force Base... Oops!

Anyhow, they both can now be accessed from my web-site.

Enjoy!

chase wrap-up

Hello folks,

I'm not sure who out there has been monitoring today - my progress on "the chase." But, to send out a very much abridged version:

Departed Grand Forks at 3:05pm... Stopped in Devils Lake for a data stop... Proceeded to the target area (Leeds, ND). Ended up pulling over off of Highway 30 south of ND-2 around 5:50pm (was located about 3 miles southeast of York, ND). Found a very nice vantage point here and spent close to an hour observing and making calls back to Meridian for updates. Went after the Sheridan/Wells County storms to my south, hopping back on Hwy 30 south. Sprinkles fell on the car briefly as I drove under the anvil and low-level inflow... Ended up stopping just east of the Hwy 30/15 junction, watching the storm slowly push off to the north-northeast. After which, decidedly began my trek back eastward to Grand Forks.

Bustola! ;)

Did see "a storm," so I can't complain much, but it was a little frustrating with gas as expensive as it is to put over 300 miles into the effort. It was a fun trip, though and got me out of Grand Forks for a good portion of the day.

A much more complete chase log will be forthcoming on the web-site later this afternoon, including a few select photos.

Overall, not bad for the first chase of 2007. Could have had better results, but well, what can you do when the atmosphere just doesn't quite cooperate!?!

Data stop...

In Devils Lake at a local Comfort Inn... *Note to self free wireless Internet!

Data check is still indicating the target is still on... Will be continuing west towards Churchs Ferry and maybe even a bit further west, towards Leeds. Satellite and radar trends are looking promising. Small cell has fired up SW of Minot in the last 30 minutes and expect convection to become more widespread over the next hour or so. Seems that the capping inversion is still holding a bit strong, but CU field is increasing here - a good sign. Indicates some low-level moisture here. SPC Mesoanalysis still indicating fairly significant storm-relative helicities with EHI's still ranging from 2-4. LFC's continue to drop, as well...

Time to get back on the road!

If I can find a signal in Leeds, may update more later.

Chase Day (Departure)

Models early this afternoon are rather consistent and keep the frontal boundary a bit further west. Mesoanalysis and obs currently indicated the development of that pre-frontal trough I was wishing for - only a bit further west than I had anticipated.

A few positives:
- convection that's fired up early today has an outflow boundary pushing west through east-central ND currently...
- LFC's are progressively dropping over southeastern portions of the state and this should continue to the northwest along instability axis
- EHI's still looking fairly good across eastern third of the state by 21z.

Still think I'd have to drive pretty far to get into the better mid-level flow over north-central and western areas of the state, but think that this will improve with time to the east. Better deep-layer shear out there as well.

Will be departing over the next half-hour with an initial target of around the Hwy 281 and Hwy 2 junction, or near Churchs Ferry. Highway 281 will give me a good north-south option with Hwy 2 allowing me easy access to east-west options.

It's looking like I'll be going solo as the 'partners' have seemingly backed out on me. So, that's affecting my westward extent. That is, unless someone calls me within the next half-hour or so.

Stay tuned...

Chase Day (update)

After consulting with the 06z runs this morning before leaving work, it seems that both the WRF and GFS are slowing the system down even further. They both begin convecting towards 18z over north-central portions of the state (which isn't a surprise given the weak capping) but still hint at that pre-frontal trough developing over east-central portions of the state later this afternoon. I'm still hoping for development of additional discrete storms along this corridor (from Devils Lake through Carrington, down towards Medina). The 06z runs still indicate enhanced EHI values and fairly strong signals for H85 Theta-E advection between 18 and 21z. I am adjusting the target area a bit further north and west - near New Rockford, ND. Highway 281 will give me a good north-south option and since the WRF does indicate slightly better forcing west of the Devils Lake basin it would make better sense adjusting northward some.

If things don't develop in the higher instability and along the pre-frontal trough (if that indeed develops) then I'll, at least, be in decent shape for a nice squall line to push through during the late-afternoon and early-evening.

The plan right now is to head into work around noon today, to get the latest data, make a decision and to call co-workers Brad Werner and possibly Bryan McQuade to see if they would be interested in riding along. Having a partner or two would be really nice to make the gas a little cheaper. Then to head out around 2:00 or 3:00pm CDT towards New Rockford.

Will update more once I get to work later...

Chase Day?

Models have been fairly consistent with this shortwave pushing eastward across the Northern Plains and this may turn into my first official chase for the 2007 season. The last couple of WRF and GFS runs have slowed the system down some and wants to fire off convection over the Devils Lake basin, however still hints at a pre-frontal trough with a coincident wave pushing north-northeast out of South Dakota during the afternoon.

I'm hoping that this may lead to development a bit further east, where 850 Theta-E advection is fairly strong and sets up a decent tongue by 21z.

The synoptic setup is still impressive with plenty of shear to go around... Deep layer shear is more than sufficient for large hail and high winds and with low-level shear at this magnitude I could see possible tornadic storms out there somewhere. I really like the EHI's by 18 and 21z.

Right now, I'm planning to catch up on model data early tomorrow, make adjustments to the target area, meet up with potential chase partners, and head out.

Right now, I'm thinking of near Carrington to possibly Cooperstown...
More later!

Dodge City, KS radar loop

For those of you curious about the parent supercell that went on to produce the devastating and deadly Greensburg, KS tornado, I've put together a rather extensive radar loop from the Dodge City radar.

To view the loop, simply click on the following link:
http://www.mhartman-wx.com/mwx_eventList.html

The loop begins around 5:13pm CDT on May 4th, when the first storm echoes were picked up by the radar over far northeastern portions of the Texas panhandle. It continues through late that evening, until 4:31am on May 5th, when convection finally departed the radar coverage area.

The storm chaser in me wants to say, "what a beautiful storm..." Yet, knowing now what kind of damage this monster tornado brought to the tiny town of Greensburg is very sobering. It's truly amazing that no more were killed. Folks, this tornado 25 years ago very likely could have killed a hundred or more. Adequate warning systems helped tremendously that night and those people in Greensburg, having a plan, knew what to do and where to go.

Have a plan, folks... This can and will happen again. If we all do our part, we can also keep death tolls to a minimum!

First thunder!

That's right, I'm here to report the first thunder of the year. We had widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms around the area this past Saturday evening and even though it occurred late, I pulled myself out of bed and sat waiting impatiently for that perfect CG to capture on the camera. It took nearly an hour of waiting! Most of the lightning came in the IC (in-cloud) variety, however I did count a grand total of two CG bolts. Luckily, I was able to capture one of them. If you are curious, head over to my PhotoBlog to view the picture.

In other news, widespread severe weather was reported throughout the weekend over the central and southern Plains and my heart, especially, goes out to those folks in Greensburg, Kansas. The small town was nearly wiped off the map from a massive tornado Friday evening, killing 10 people. Officials have estimated that 95% of the town was destroyed with the other 5% still suffering from moderate to severe damage. Please keep your thoughts and prayers with those people affected with this latest round of severe weather and tornadoes.

2007 Northern Plains Convective Workshop

The 11th annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop was held this past week (April 24-25, 2007). Included among the nearly 80-strong crowd was myself, and a couple of other Meridian co-workers.

It was another strong workshop to follow up from last year's in Aberdeen, SD. Several presentations were given on the August 24, 2006 severe weather outbreak that occurred over eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota, as well as events over the past 1-3 years around the region. Scientists were down from the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg this year - and it was pleasure to meet some of those folks, since we do forecasting for Alberta. I met up once again with some familiar faces from last year's workshop. Mostly from the Aberdeen, Chanhassen, Sioux Falls, and Duluth offices.

It was great seeing everyone and getting caught up on the latest research in the severe weather department. I was particularly caught up in Dr. Paul Markowski's presentation on Tornadogenesis and Aaron Kennedy's research into the Descending Reflectivity Core theory... I foresee a lot of reading through research papers this summer - on much of what was covered at the workshop while on office shifts.

Also, to note, the 2008 Northern Plains Convective Workshop will hosted in Bismarck, ND. The forecast office there will be hosting the event. Mark your calendars!