Chase Day (update)

After consulting with the 06z runs this morning before leaving work, it seems that both the WRF and GFS are slowing the system down even further. They both begin convecting towards 18z over north-central portions of the state (which isn't a surprise given the weak capping) but still hint at that pre-frontal trough developing over east-central portions of the state later this afternoon. I'm still hoping for development of additional discrete storms along this corridor (from Devils Lake through Carrington, down towards Medina). The 06z runs still indicate enhanced EHI values and fairly strong signals for H85 Theta-E advection between 18 and 21z. I am adjusting the target area a bit further north and west - near New Rockford, ND. Highway 281 will give me a good north-south option and since the WRF does indicate slightly better forcing west of the Devils Lake basin it would make better sense adjusting northward some.

If things don't develop in the higher instability and along the pre-frontal trough (if that indeed develops) then I'll, at least, be in decent shape for a nice squall line to push through during the late-afternoon and early-evening.

The plan right now is to head into work around noon today, to get the latest data, make a decision and to call co-workers Brad Werner and possibly Bryan McQuade to see if they would be interested in riding along. Having a partner or two would be really nice to make the gas a little cheaper. Then to head out around 2:00 or 3:00pm CDT towards New Rockford.

Will update more once I get to work later...