Chase Day?

Models have been fairly consistent with this shortwave pushing eastward across the Northern Plains and this may turn into my first official chase for the 2007 season. The last couple of WRF and GFS runs have slowed the system down some and wants to fire off convection over the Devils Lake basin, however still hints at a pre-frontal trough with a coincident wave pushing north-northeast out of South Dakota during the afternoon.

I'm hoping that this may lead to development a bit further east, where 850 Theta-E advection is fairly strong and sets up a decent tongue by 21z.

The synoptic setup is still impressive with plenty of shear to go around... Deep layer shear is more than sufficient for large hail and high winds and with low-level shear at this magnitude I could see possible tornadic storms out there somewhere. I really like the EHI's by 18 and 21z.

Right now, I'm planning to catch up on model data early tomorrow, make adjustments to the target area, meet up with potential chase partners, and head out.

Right now, I'm thinking of near Carrington to possibly Cooperstown...
More later!