Another chase day?

It's looking like my plans for my extended time off this weekend from work will be changing somewhat. I was initially thinking of taking a road trip out west to finally see the badlands here in North Dakota.

It's looking now, that while I'll still be heading west on Saturday, it will be to see Supercells! This afternoon's 12z NAM is indicating a fairly significant surface trough pushing eastward across the Northern Plains. Steepening lapse rates and good flow in the mid to upper-levels should give us plenty of instability and shear for Supercells. I'm a little concerned with the mid-level temperatures. With 700mb temps from 10 to 15° C, it will be fairly capped out there. The NAM is convecting things over western/central ND between 21 and 00z, which I think is being quite liberal. I wouldn't be surprised if things hold off closer to sunset. It does show some slight weakening in the inversion along and just behind the frontal boundary, so maybe ascent will be strong enough to provide that trigger to bust through it.

It's a couple of days out yet, but it will be something I'll keep close tabs on over the next 24-36 hours.

I'm definitely enjoying this pattern...