Potential Chase Day

We may be looking at another opportunity to chase tomorrow. Looking at the latest models, much of central and eastern North Dakota may just be looking at a decent threat for Supercells and tornadoes. Low-level and deep-layer shear and instability look outstanding and our mid and upper-level flow is more than enough to support Supercells.

I haven't seen hodographs like these in quite some time, so I feel I need to share these... This image is a forecast sounding near Grand Forks, ND at 3Z Friday (10:00pm Thursday evening). The hodograph in the upper-right hand corner is one of the largest I've seen in quite a while. That is some outstanding storm-relative inflow!

Capping won't be as much of an issue as with our chase days over the past week and if the trends continue on the NAM, convection may fire late in the afternoon and that would certainly help my cause. Since I'm on mids this week, I'll have Thursday open, but I'll have to be back into town by 11:30pm Thursday night for work.

It doesn't look like I'd need to drive far and that will help, as well.

This definitely looks like one of the better setups we've had around these parts in some time.

I'll continue to watch things over the next day or so and will try to update the blog here.

More later...